DTP are pleased to share our latest DTP Briefing which we prepare on a quarterly basis. The aim of our briefings is to provide useful updates on relevant social housing sector content, highlight where DTP can assist in providing support and advice on any issues arising from these and to publicise recent DTP social media activity, future events, and content. As always, we welcome feedback for future content – please email s.jackson@dtp.uk.com with any thoughts or suggestions.
Our aim is to ensure that our updates reach every relevant individual within your organisation, allowing us to share more social housing sector knowledge. To add a colleague to our mailing list, please visit our website home page and sign them up via the link at the bottom of the page https://www.dtp.uk.com/ or email s.jackson@dtp.uk.com
Finally, we would like to thank our clients for their ongoing support, we look forward to continuing to work with you and your team.
If you are reading this briefing and are not currently a client, we are happy to have a short call or virtual meeting on a gratis basis, to discuss any challenges you may be experiencing and explore how we could support you. Please contact a member of the team for an informal discussion.
In our last briefing we provided our thoughts on what the year ahead may bring. So far, 2025 has brought continued challenges for many sectors, including the social care and third sectors as the impact of increased employers National Insurance contributions and further squeezes on Local Authority budgets challenges already tight operating margins even further.
Against a backdrop of an increasingly dynamic operating environment, the social housing sector continues to face conflicting challenges. The crucial role of the Board and the Executive Teams in effectively managing financial plans and overseeing risk management strategies is as vital and important as ever. Regardless of the size of housing provider, the challenges appear to be common to all – maintaining resilience, whilst seeking to deliver the balancing act of providing new homes, investing in existing homes and navigating the minefield of seemingly moveable feast net zero expectations.
As with many of the significant emerging risks in recent years (Cameron / Osborne rent cut, global pandemic etc.) the Trump administration’s US Tariff impositions loomed out of nowhere to threaten economic turmoil, not only to the countries upon which the tariffs were levied, but also to the US itself, which saw huge value wiped off its share indices, a slump in its growth projections and a spike in inflation. Quite how this will play out in relation to the impact on the UK economy is still unclear, although the Government’s limited success in securing a limited trade deal could soften the impact to a degree for us.
The recent announcement of the 90-day, 115% reduction in China tariffs suggests Trump will row back to some extent, mindful of the negative impact that his tariff policy is having on US Government bonds and the subsequent increase in the cost of US Government borrowing. Nonetheless, it seems that some sort of tariff ‘new world’ will remain.
Back at home, the Government’s economic strategy looks beleaguered since the Spring Statement, as many of the key underpinning assumptions appear to have quickly unravelled. Many economists have warned that £9.9billion of fiscal headroom has effectively disappeared due to continued low growth, higher borrowing costs, sticky inflation and unexpectedly high interest rates. The EY Item Club (which mirrors the Treasury’s economic assessments) has lowered its 2025 growth projection for the UK from 1.0% to 0.8% and from 1.6% to 0.9% for 2026. The International Monetary Fund also projects lower growth for the UK in 2025 at 1.1%, from its previous assessment of 1.6%. In each case the ‘tariff effect’ has been cited.
Inflation is expected to be above 3% in April 2025 and to remain at this level for the remainder of 2025, dropping to 2.4% in 2026. Expert observers have suggested that despite cuts to spending, Autumn could see the Chancellor announce a further hike in taxes. More positively, it is expected that the Bank of England will cut base rates to 3.75% by the end of 2025, dropping still further to 3.5% by February 2026.
With all of the foregoing in mind, we continue to provide expert advice and support to officers and Boards, as they prepare budgets and business plans, ahead of regulatory FFR submissions. We support strategic Board discussions on risk, stress testing and recovery planning, as well as facilitating reviews of risk appetite – all the while we aim to assist Boards in securing effective oversight of these matters as well as enabling Board members to gain genuine ownership of the business critical, though quite granular elements of strategic financial planning.
Implementation of the Supported Housing (Regulatory Oversight) Act 2023
The Government has published a long-awaited consultation on its plans for the implementation of the Supported Housing (Regulatory Oversight) Act 2023. The joint consultation between the Ministry for Housing, Communities and Local Government and the Department for Work and Pensions is seeking views from the sector about a range of proposals which include: National Supported Housing Standards Local Authority led licensing regime Changes to Housing Benefit regulations for ‘specified accommodation’ which includes exempt accommodation, managed properties, local authority hostels and domestic violence refuges Linked to exempt accommodation, a definition of ‘care, support and supervision’ within Housing Benefit regulations A proposal to link Housing Benefit with the National Supported Housing Standards and licensing
Both the Chartered Institute of Housing and the National Housing Federation have issued briefings to help providers and members understand the potential implications of the proposals and submit responses. The proposed changes seek to improve the quality and regulation of supported exempt accommodation in England. The consultation process runs until the 15th May 2025.
The proposed changes fall short of tackling the pressing issue of effective funding for supported housing, something we know has caused frustration amongst the sector generally. We have seen first-hand the mounting pressures facing supported housing providers – from increased running costs to rising demand and insecure funding. The current situation is very much unsustainable. Without urgent intervention at the next Spending Review, the sector risks losing essential services that support some of the most vulnerable people in our society. The knock-on effects on the NHS, social care, homelessness services and the criminal justice system would also be profound. The National Housing Federation launched the ‘Save our Supported Housing #SOS Housing’ campaign in April 2025 – it is calling on the government for urgent intervention to: Significantly increase funding for housing-related support to at least £1.6bn per year Commit to delivering more supported homes by 2040, with clear funding in the Affordable Homes Programme and supported homes a key part of the government’s 1.5m housebuilding target Ensure that the long-term housing strategy and homelessness strategy encompass the vital role of supported housing in the housing system
NHF members can find out how they can support the campaign directly here.
If you would like any support in identifying how any of the above developments may or may not affect your organisation, DTP can support you – please contact DTP Director Sarah Jackson on s.jackson@dtp.uk.com
Lease based providers of Specialist Supported Housing
In April, the Regulator of Social Housing published a report which outlines its views in relation to the risks and benefits of lease based Specialised Supported Housing provision. The report considers key aspects such as risk sharing, managing void risk, repairs and maintenance obligations, good governance and financial risks.
A copy of the report can be found here. We would urge any provider operating lease based provision of this nature to consider the report and use it to assess how well they are managing the risks and challenges outlined by the regulator. DTP has worked closely with a variety of lease based providers around Specialist Supported Housing provision and can provide specialist advice and support if required.
DTP have a values based approach to our work, providing expert advice in a people focussed way, which delivers tailored solutions to our clients. Over the last twelve months we have been further developing the range of services that we offer, all aimed at helping our clients improve how they are governed, operated and financed.
Full details can be found on our website here. If you would like to explore services which you have not utilised before, please do not hesitate to contact a member of the DTP team to discuss your requirements.
Here is a reminder of some of our most recent webinars and podcasts (with links provided) all aimed at providing valuable insight and sharing good practice.
DTP Briefing (Webinar): Learning from Early Regulatory Inspections
Meet the Client – Salix Homes: Learning from Regulator of Social Housing Inspection
Understanding Assets and Liabilities Registers
The Rent Standard and Regulatory Compliance Part 1
The Rent Standard and Regulatory Compliance Part 2
Business and Financial Planning for Small Housing Associations
All of our podcasts are available on our YouTube channel here DTP – YouTube
We regularly post a variety of DTP views and updates via our social media activity. If you have not already had chance to view these and would like to, please follow the links below:
Rethinking Risk: Five Essentials for Boards to consider on Away Days
Understanding Assets and Liabilities Registers (Marcus Evans) – m.evans@dtp.uk.com
Housing Association Boards: Why External Financial Assurance Matters (Andy Roskell) – a.roskell@dtp.uk.com
Financial Benchmarking for Development in Social Housing: A Pathway to Success (Andy Chapman) a.chapman@dtp.uk.com
The Regulator of Social Housing’s Sector Risk Profile 2024 – Key ‘Takeaways’ for Boards (Sarah Jackson, featuring Devonshires’ Samantha Grix) – s.jackson@dtp.uk.com
The Importance of Data in Navigating the New Regulations in Social Housing (Diane Carney) – d.carney@dtp.uk.com
Five business and financial planning actions for small housing associations (Andy Chapman) – a.chapman@dtp.uk.com
To keep up to date with all of our publications and general activity, you can follow us on LinkedIn by using this link DTP LinkedIn
All of our past case studies are on our website and shared via our social media channels as they are released. In case you missed our most recent case studies, we have provided links to these below:
Wirral Methodist Housing Association – Governance Review
Ongo Homes – Mock Inspection
Prima Group – Mock Inspection
Whg – Independent case review following determination from the Housing Ombudsman Service
We hope that you’ve enjoyed our most recent briefing, don’t forget, feedback as always is greatly appreciated – please contact s.jackson@dtp.uk.com if you have any feedback that you would like to share.
We look forward to working with and supporting you during 2025.
